As the UK grapples with increasingly erratic weather patterns, a significant rise in subsidence claims could put increasing pressure on the insurance sector. The combination of record rainfall in late 2024 followed by prolonged dry spells in early 2025 and early summer heatwaves has created ideal conditions for soil movement beneath properties in clay-rich regions.
"The surge in subsidence claims is no longer a seasonal anomaly—it's a structural challenge driven by climate volatility. As the ground shifts beneath our feet, the insurance claims sector must adapt quickly by seeking fresh solutions and new approaches. Proactive risk management and early intervention are now essential tools in protecting property and policyholder trust," said Afzal Ahmed, Crawford & Company.
Afzal continued, “Subsidence can pose a serious threat to what is often a policyholder’s most valuable asset—their home. Traditional claims processes often compound the anxiety homeowners already face which can be heightened during a subsidence surge. Crawford’s proprietary solution, SubSprint®, which is in final pilot stages, integrates seamlessly with existing claims management systems to deliver AI-powered insights that streamline subsidence claims. Not only can this approach accelerate resolution times, but it can also improve accuracy and customer outcomes at every stage of the journey.”
The background
Triggered by high temperatures and extended periods without significant rainfall, the UK saw major surges in subsidence claims in 2003, 2018 and again 2022 when the entire industry felt the impact of a 400% increase in claims volumes.
With record temperatures already seen in 2025, along with the first hosepipe ban of the season, Crawford is monitoring weather conditions closely.
2025 so far
Following the record breaking hot/dry spring weather, the trend has continued. Met Office figures up to the end of June show:
- Provisionally we have seen England’s warmest June on record, with a mean temperature of 16.9°C (2.5°C above the long-term average) and 30°C was exceeded in parts of central, southern and eastern England.
- Strong regional divides in rainfall with parts of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland seeing well above average rainfall, but southern-east England has seen well below average rainfall for five consecutive months.
- Above-average sunshine hours in June, much of this along the east coast of England
- A dry spring and June heatwaves drove a significant rise in the Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System (MORECS) soil moisture readings, with figures already ahead of those from the “surge” years of 2003, 2018 and 2022.
The current situation
Current claims volumes stand at April/May/June levels. However, there may be a significant upturn in subsidence-related claims based on the following:
- Crawford has seen the first examples of new clay shrinkage subsidence this year and ongoing monitoring is starting to show downward movement.
- The forecast into August shows no sign of a reversal in the current weather conditions.
The outlook
Crawford is following the “Met Office three-month Outlook,” which is prepared for contingency planners in the public, business and industrial sectors.
The update for July to September, issued on 01 July 2025, indicates that the chance of a hot period is higher than normal, with the possibility of a peak of 36°C in London and an increased likelihood of heatwaves and heat-related impacts.
Crawford’s alert status
Crawford’s surge risk has increased to “High Amber” status and our prediction is that the ABI claims volumes for 2025 are likely to be significantly higher than the 2023/2024 summer average.
We continue to review and implement our plans to deal with any uplift in claims volumes while also proactively settling any outstanding complex claims.
We recommend that insurers review their own surge response plans and remain alert to the upcoming weather conditions.
